By Hunt Palmer
Time remains for LSU. This series against Texas A&M will help determine how quickly that hourglass runs out of sand.
RPI talk started this week in earnest. LSU still has nine games remaining against the RPI top 20, and that’s plenty to drive its ranking in the right direction by Memorial Day. But, you have to win them. The Tigers were at RPI No. 8 last weekend and left town without a W.
One weekend can always turn the tide. Texas A&M is proof of that. The Aggies emerged from last weekend’s revenge-soaked series with Jim Schlossnagle and Texas as winners of both games and a threat to contend in the SEC. It wasn’t long ago they were 1-4 in league play.
For LSU, this matchup is the inverse of last week. Ole Miss has a stellar pitching staff and a leaky lineup. The Aggie arms are iffy. The bats are big time. LSU has not fared well against dominant arms. Those are in short supply in College Station, but beware of this group of A&M hitters. They can change a series in a hurry.
INJURY UPDATE
Cooper Moore was listed as questionable on the SEC availability report on Thursday. He threw twice this week and as of Thursday afternoon had not felt any discomfort.
That could mean Moore is available for a very short outing this weekend. As I always say, a series is a collection of outs. Moore’s assistance with three-to-six of those would be very much welcomed by Jay Johnson and Nate Yeskie.
Seth Dardar and Trent Caraway are also questionable. They did not practice on Wednesday, and that leaves LSU shorthanded on the infield. Brayden Simpson becomes the most likely second baseman. Tanner Reaves, William Patrick, Jack Ruckert and Ethan Clauss are also options.
In a series where LSU will have to score to keep up, missing Dardar’s thump would be disappointing. Perhaps his injured foot improves by Sunday, and he can give LSU something on offense.
PITCHING PREVIEW
Texas A&M basically rides six pitchers on the weekend. Only two have been named as starters.
Shane Sdao will go on Friday night. The talented left-hander was sidelined during Texas A&M’s 2024 run to the national final and missed last season with Tommy John surgery.
His SEC numbers are awful. He’s not. He’s just having a heck of a time keeping the ball in the ballpark. In 23 SEC innings, he’s allowed eight homers. Vanderbilt got him for four, two of which came on the first nine pitches he threw. Generally, an arm that allows that many long balls isn’t racking up strikeouts. Sdao does.
He struck out 10 Vanderbilt hitters in five innings. Georgia took him deep twice, and he managed to strike out 11 Bulldogs. The answer to this riddle is the slider. Sdao’s breaking ball is very sweepy, and it can miss a lot of bats. But he hangs it. When that happens, it gets hit a ton.
Like the last two weekends, LSU will see the opponent’s best pitcher on Saturday. For Texas A&M, that’s Aiden Sims. The tall Texan right-hander is 3-0 in SEC play and has been very good since a poor start in the league opener at Oklahoma. The Sooners tagged him for eight runs in 2.2 innings in Norman. No one has scored more than three earned since. However, three of the four have scored exactly three earned. He did shut Vanderbilt out over seven innings.
Sims has a fastball at 95 mph and pair of quality secondary pitches that he plays off one another. The cutter is close to 90 mph, and he throws a curveball down at 84.
LSU has been baffled by elite arms and has punched back, sometimes forcefully, against the average. By SEC standards, these two Aggie starters are average. On a warm weekend at home, the Tigers will have to score early and often to win.
LETHAL LINEUP
A&M rakes.
Caden Sorrell is going to be a top 10 pick in the draft, and Gavin Grahovac is having a monster bounce back season after an injury cost him last year.
Sorrell is hitting .368 with 17 big flies. He’s at .355 in SEC with six of those in SEC play. Grahovac is hitting .364 versus SEC pitching from the leadoff spot where he’s as physical a top-of-the-order presence as there is in the country. He’s left the yard five times in 15 SEC games.
Those two are brutal to navigate because Sorrell hits left-handed, and Grahovac swings it from the right side. Expect Johnson to play some matchups late in tight games.
It’s not just those two, though.
A&M leads the SEC in league games in batting average (.288), runs scored (by 25), doubles, slugging percentage (by 87 points), walks (by 27) and fewest strikeouts. They’re second in homers. That’s all a little bit more impressive when you consider the Aggies have only played 14 games.
That’s how you average a shade under 10 runs per game in the nation’s toughest conference. The Aggies have scored double digit runs in seven of 14 games and have been held to three or less once.
STARS TO SHINE
If LSU is going to win this series, the stars will have to do it.
The Tigers cannot expect to compete if Casan Evans can’t find the plate and William Schmidt lasts 3.2 innings. Zac Cowan will have to slam the door on a multi-inning save. Jake Brown needs to hit it in the seats. Derek Curiel needs six hits. Steven Milam has to get in on the act, and Chris Stanfield needs to be on the field.
Expecting Mason Braun, Omar Serna, Marcos Paz and whoever plays second base to shoulder a big load against a top 10 team isn’t going to work. Every player I just listed has to be solid, but the big guns have to be loaded for this one.
Any LSU win is probably going to have to be 8-6 or 12-11. LSU walks a ton of hitters. A&M takes walks. LSU gives free outs. A&M’s lineup is built to pounce on that.
The Aggies have lost two of five series. Oklahoma scored 25 runs in three games. Georgia scored 22 and hit 10 home runs. LSU has shown the ability to slug in spots. The lineup is sixth in the SEC in slugging and home runs in league games. The lion’s share of that work has come against vulnerable arms which A&M has.
MOSS AND COWAN
Both coaches in this matchup are looking for the time to go to their veteran right-handers out of the bullpen. Weston Moss has been a starter at Texas A&M, but Michael Earley has moved him to the bullpen for high leverage spots. Moss is a physical presence with a firm fastball. Clayton Freshcorn is technically the closer. He ends games, but Moss could be the first reliever out if the Aggies get a lead.
Cowan has been nails for LSU. He’s found the command of that fastball-changeup combination that he used so effectively last season. A&M got to him last year in College Station. Sorrell took him deep to give the Aggies the lead at Blue Bell Park in game three to clinch the series.
If either or both are not used on Friday and Saturday, consider them the favorites to start on Sunday where both teams are currently TBA.
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