TAMPA, Fla. — In the midst of floral shirts, boundless optimism and the heat of the Florida summer, we’re here looking for a story.
Perhaps one emerges over the next four days. Sixteen teams will have the chance.
I spent the travel day pouring over returning starters, transfer additions and coordinator hires. July predictions aren’t worth the paper they’re printed on. LSU and Clemson combined to lose 12 games last year. No one in Atlanta cared to offer that projection 52 weeks ago.
Still, this week allows for opinion and that summertime optimism.
As I dove into LSU, it wasn’t the new coach, top-ranked transfer class or pre-season All-SEC picks that started to stand out. Lane Kiffin is the biggest story in terms of the program’s future, but that wasn’t the headline for me. The transfers led by Sam Leavitt introduce a new era, and there is some all-conference talent on the roster. It wasn’t that.
The schedule grabbed my attention.
Winning on the road in the SEC is a brutal chore. Trying to win in Athens, Austin or Oxford is a sobering reality for every team in the league. Same said for College Station, Norman or Gainesville. On the flip side, hosting games gives you a fighting chance no matter the opponent. That’s certainly true for LSU in Tiger Stadium.
Death Valley will shape the course of the SEC schedule this fall. Texas, Alabama, Texas A&M and Clemson will all enter through that northeast tunnel to a chorus of boos from 102,000 strong. I think all three of those SEC squads will get a first-place vote this week. Texas might have four top 10 picks on the roster. Alabama and A&M were playoff teams last year. Clemson is looking for a bounce back like LSU.
Over the last five seasons, LSU is 32-6 at home.
There are plenty of variables for the Tigers entering year one of the Kiffin era. The quarterback is coming off an injury. The wide receivers are all imports. Defensive back depth is questionable. The kicker is new.
Tiger Stadium is a constant.
LSU plays some manageable road opponents in Kentucky, Arkansas and Auburn. All three fired coaches last fall like the Tigers. Even if the LSU trips up in Kiffin’s return to Oxford in Week 3, the biggest battles to come will all be played at home. That excludes LSU’s first trip to Knoxville since 2017. The Vols finished 8-5 last year.
Blake Baker’s defense needs to make some more plays behind the line of scrimmage. Leavitt needs to be able to use his feet. The running game has to show up. But I keep coming back to Tiger Stadium.
If LSU can win six of seven home games, the Tigers will be a playoff team. My hunch is that very few of the assembled scribes and talking heads in Tampa will project that. Beating Clemson, Alabama, Texas A&M and Texas won’t come easy. Nor will a win in Baton Rouge for those four.
As the week unfolds, more talking points and storylines will emerge.
Right now, it’s LSU’s schedule for me.
