The crowd is not going to be much of a factor in this one. When LSU basketball losing streaks grow, fan interest wanes. It’ll be up to the Tigers to bring their own energy against a ranked Ole Miss team.
The Rebels are a five-seed in Joe Lunardi’s latest bracketology. After Tuesday’s win over Kentucky, Ole Miss is in the middle of a manageable stretch of SEC play. This trip to Baton Rouge is followed up by another road game at South Carolina. Those are the two weakest teams in the SEC. The Mississippi State comes to Oxford before the Rebs head to Vanderbilt.
No four game stretch in the SEC is forgiving, but manageable feels like an apt description.
Tipoff is at 7:30 tonight on SEC Network.
KEEP AWAY
Ole Miss has a clear identity, and it plays brilliantly against LSU’s weakness. The Rebels turn the ball over less frequently than every other team in college basketball. Chris Beard’s squad is averaging 8.9 turnovers per game. That means they get a ton of shots up. Meanwhile, they force 15.4 turnovers per game which is 20th in the nation. That nets to a +6.5 turnover margin per game, and it’s an effective way to get wins.
LSU gives the ball away like candy on Halloween.
In the first matchup between these teams, LSU hung in there in the turnover margin. The Tigers committed 17 and forced 13. That will be essential Saturday night. If that differential grows to eight or nine, that’s ballgame.
EFFORT, ENERGY
I hate this storyline, but it’s essential to cover. LSU was mauled in the turnover and rebounding margins on Wednesday. Plus, the Tigers settled for a ton of threes. LSU has no chance to win with less than its best effort. That means intense defense and hustle to the backboards. I’ll be monitoring the “hustle stats”. LSU cannot lose them by the margin they’ve lost them the last two games.
Texas and Georgia rolled up monster offensive numbers against a defense that had been putting up a fight. And those aren’t elite offensive teams. Neither is Ole Miss. We’ll see if that troubling trend continues.
FREEBEES
You wouldn’t guess that LSU leads the SEC in anything at this point. Wrong. The Tigers are the best free throw shooting team in the league.
Ole Miss will put teams on the line. The Rebs are No. 211 in fouls per game, meaning 210 teams fouls less frequently. Instead of letting threes fly from everywhere on the court like Wednesday, the Tigers really need to focus on getting to the foul line to get some efficient points.
Cam Carter and Jordan Sears have been exceptional from the stripe. Get there.
